Finals Preview

Before previewing the finals, let’s wrap up Cleveland’s improbable run to the East championship. What was more amazing, the Cavs’ run or the Pistons’ collapse? I think it was more the Cavs run but what a collapse by Detroit. They even rolled over in the 4th quarter of the last game. I believe their coach, Flip Saunders, a nice guy, is gone. But this also could mean that Chauncey Billups will leave as a free agent this summer. Why should he stay? They clearly will not win a title as they are presently constituted and Rasheed is ready to implode. Detroit has no chance of beating LeBron ever again, as his confidence is sky high against them now. So he might as well leave…maybe Billups will go play with Dwight Howard in Orlando. Let’s see.

But really, the series was all about LeBron. He won games and got inside Detroit’s head doing it. He looked like DWade did last year on the Heat’s title run, except this guy is so much bigger and stronger. Wade would drive and finish with fade away bank shots; LeBron finished with hard slams. They both count for 2 points but one is more demoralizing to the defense than the other. And then LeBron has started making jump shots too. He clearly is reaching for another level and we are seeing the ascent of a possible all-time great. His Game 5 was one of the best all time and could have been THE best performance in a non-finals playoff game. Bird and Dominique had an amazing game in 87, Reggie Miller had some against the Knicks, but LeBron willed his team to that win on the road against a team that does not easily get rattled.

But now on to the Finals Preview. This is a very interesting matchup. The Spurs should be favored and should win. That does not mean they will. Let’s break it down a bit:

Inside Game. Z. Igauskas and Drew Gooden against Tim Duncan and me inside would be an advantage to the Spurs. Duncan is one of, if not THE greatest power forward ever. But can Cleveland keep him from asserting himself? Can they foul him enough to get him frustrated at the line? Maybe. That being said, this is a big advantage Spurs.

Guard Play. Daniel Gibson was huge for Cleveland against Detroit. He even made heaps of big shots in the 4th Q of the last game when the outcome was in doubt. SO even though he is a rookie, he is not afraid of the big games. BUT, both Parker and Ginobili have been in a few big games in their lives (understatement) and come out pretty well. Tony Parker is just a real good NBA point guard. He is underappreciated sometimes, but he is a great player. I am not a big Ginobili fan, but he has stepped up at times. The artist formerly known as Larry Hughes plays in the backcourt for the Cavs, as does Eric Snow off the bench. Ummmmm….advantage Spurs.

Intangibles. I am concerned with the huge celebration Cleveland had after beating Detroit. They were celebrating like they had won the title. They have never been in the Finals before and the city is desperate for a winner…but you haven’t won yet! Another intangible pointing toward San Antonio is Tony Parker’s fiancé. I am not sure what celebrities are in Cleveland (I am sure a lot will show up now to try to get in LBJ's posse). BUT last year Wade won in his first trip so there is no barrier for LeBron to do that this year. So intangibles are EVEN.

Coaches. We don’t really need to discuss this. Popovich is a great coach. Mike Brown is lucky he has LeBron. Advantage Spurs.

The Three. Now we get down to business. LeBron vs. Bowen. Detroit has a great defensive team, like the Spurs, and LBJ cut through them like a hot knife through butter (old cliché but it fits). Can Bowen slow him down? NO. Does LBJ have the confidence to take it to SA? YES. He will be the dominant player on the court throughout the entire series. More so than Duncan because 1) Duncan plays in the post and needs someone to get him the ball, 2) LBJ is a better FT shooter than Duncan, and 3) LBJ can bring up the ball and make outside shots if you play off him too much. So, yes, the series does hinge on LBJ. Will he continue his historic run through the playoffs? That is the whole series in one sentence. He has shown that he can will his team to wins. But can he against the Spurs. I say yes. Advantage Cavs.

PREDICTION: All the advantages but one point to the Spurs. Duncan and Parker are tremendous players. Michael Finley can go off and shoot 3’s like crazy at any moment. I would Robert Horry could do something, but I don’t think so. He can push the Suns around but not the Cavs. Drew Gooden is crazy enough to go off on him in a fight. I should write here Spurs in 6…but I am not. Just like Wade last year stepped way up in the Finals, LBJ can do that this year. Remember, this is the NBA, a league of stars. Defensive rules DO allow one player to take over games. Look at history. So with that in mind, here is my prediction…CAVS in 7.

Interesting point that must be said here. Game 7 is scheduled for June 21. I will be in suburban Cleveland on that date. I definitely would be wanting to watch with a big crowd of Cavs fans. So I hope my prediction is correct. Anyway, Friday morning is Game One. Party at my house! I’m outta here.